Increase credit line for Yield Basis to 1B crvUSD

Summary

This is a follow-up on this proposal. Since its time, we’ve got more data and closed the value loop in Yield Basis with fee distribution on. It is time to execute on the proposal to increase the current 300M crvUSD credit line for Yield Basis to 1B crvUSD (which means up to 0.5B USD TVL in Yield Basis eventually).

Safe use of the credit line

Crucially, this 1B credit line will not be fully utilized upon approval. It acts as a maximum ceiling to be drawn upon over time. The allocation will remain unutilized in the contract, acting as a reserve that is adjusted weekly.

Actual usage is strictly data-driven and safety-focused:

  • Dynamic Caps: Usage is dictated by “caps” which are adjusted weekly to match specific metrics, primarily Curve pool sizes.
  • Governance Control: While Curve approves the total line, specific cap increases must be gradually voted in on the Yield Basis side.
  • Initial Rollout: Based on the performance of YB incentives for crvUSD pools, it is safe to initially utilize only 80M crvUSD (increasing pool caps by ~$13.3M each).
  • Future Growth: We will monitor the filling of main crvUSD pools (excluding liquidity created by PegKeepers) to identify safe possibilities for cap increases. We anticipate it taking several months to safely utilize the full credit line, including the potential creation of an ETH/staked ETH pool early next year.

crvUSD peg stability (update)

Observed BTC/crvUSD pool imbalances

Imbalances of *BTC/crvUSD pools play the key role in effects on crvUSD peg stability. It was measured that since the start of Yield Basis in September that the worst imbalance in total was around 30%/70% which means that 20% of net Curve pools size (or 40% of YB TVL size) of crvUSD price pressure was created in the worst case. The imbalance, and hence the amount of crvUSD to sit somewhere temporarily, is therefore equal quarter of the Curve pool size, or half of Yield Basis TVL size at worst S_{yb}/2.5.

Growth of crvUSD/stablecoin pools

A part of YB inflation given to Curve is currently streamed as incentives for USDC/crvUSD, USDT/crvUSD and frxUSD/crvUSD pools (the latter also gives extra incentives from Frax). These incentives buy votes for these pools.

TVL of these stablecoin pools since credit line for Yield Basis was set to $300M is measured and shown on the graphs below:

Blue line stands for staked supply (driven by YB incentives mostly), and gray line is total supply (which is higher when PegKeepers mint crvUSD to deposit).

Over that time, TVL of key crvUSD pools just from YB incentives grew up from $26M to $102M at the time of writing.

What YB caps should be

When crvUSD/stablecoin pool of size p is created, it makes a supply sink for crvUSD of the size p/2: this gets absorbed by PegKeepers. It is reasonable to assume that pool can safely get as imbalanced as 30%/70% without much harm to liquidity density. This means that the amount of crvUSD which these pools can safely absorb, along with supply sinks they create, is 0.75\,p.

We already determined that YB TVL cap can be 2x of absorbable crvUSD, based on maximum imbalance. Therefore:
S_{\max}=2.5\times 0.75 \times 102~\text{(M USD)}\approx 190~\text{(M USD)}

This means that we are ready to increase the sum of caps by $40M currently (or utilize +80M crvUSD allocation). This number should be regularly updated and adjusted on a weekly basis.

Conclusion

  • A vote to increase the current 300M crvUSD line of credit to Yield Basis Factory to 1B crvUSD will be created;
  • After the vote goes through, a vote on Yield Basis to increase caps by 40M (subject to metrics of crvUSD pools at that time) will be created;
  • Further utilization of this credit line will likely take some months and should be data-driven;
  • Raising the size of caps raises revenues for veYB (while 20% of YB inflation is irrevocably incentivizing crvUSD pools) and crvUSD trading volumes proportionally.
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Can money be lent out at a fixed interest rate?Can money be lent out at a fixed interest rate?
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We published research on how flows from YieldBasis impact the crvUSD peg and thus Curve borrowing rates - https://x.com/in_pangea/status/1997025533012672750

We are currently working with LlamaRisk to conduct further risk analysis and provide recommendations that will ensure YieldBasis and Curve can scale together.

Summary

LlamaRisk believes the proposed increase in the credit line from 300M to 1B crvUSD is premature at this time. We recognize that YieldBasis has had a positive impact on crvUSD across multiple dimensions, and we value the integration and its healthy expansion. However, our preliminary analysis, in collaboration with Pangea, suggests that further expansion requires more careful evaluation of its effects on peg stability and rate dynamics. We are actively working to improve the system’s resilience to these pressures, but these efforts require time to take effect and be evaluated adequately before materially expanding exposure.

Our Concerns

Since YieldBasis launched in September, we have been monitoring the interaction between YB operations and the crvUSD system health. While the integration has delivered clear benefits, we have also observed dynamics that warrant attention as we consider scaling further:

Peg Instability

As discussed in our recent proposal for the adjustment of crvUSD monetary policy and in Pangea’s response to the expansion of the 1 billion credit line, peg volatility has increased relative to pre-YB conditions. While causality cannot be assigned definitively without more controlled analysis, the timing and pattern of deviations are consistent with YB’s credit line expansion — especially during directional BTC moves when arbitrage pathways become strongly one-sided.

We observed that the current crvUSD stablecoin system faces:

  • Increases peg volatility
  • More violent Pegkeeper mint and withdraw transactions
  • Contraction in the mint market debt

We suspect structural flow between YieldBasis and crvUSD pegkeeper pools appears to create repeatable imbalances that require PegKeeper intervention more aggressively than before.

The Expansion of the credit line increases YB’s throughput capacity, which — all else equal — would scale these effects proportionally with volume.

Monetary Policy Adjustments Are Still in Progress

Given that the DAO has just passed necessary monetary policy adjustments — specifically, the updates to target_fraction and rate0 outlined in our recent proposal — we believe it is early to move forward with a 1B crvUSD credit line expansion. That proposal outlined a phased approach to gradual rate adjustments, and we have not yet completed.

These changes directly affect mint market dynamics, rate behaviour, and system-wide responsiveness under stress. It is essential to allow sufficient time to observe their real-market impact and confirm that they produce the intended stabilizing effects before materially increasing systemic leverage through a larger YieldBasis credit line.

The expansion of credit lines outside the PegKeeper framework has already contributed to increased rate volatility in mint markets and a contraction in total crvUSD debt. The monetary policy adjustments were explicitly designed to address these pressures, but their effectiveness cannot be evaluated until they have had time to propagate through the system.

What We Are Doing

LlamaRisk, in collaboration with Pangea, is conducting a deeper analysis on:

  • The causal relationship between YieldBasis flows and crvUSD peg instability
  • The effectiveness of current incentive structures in scaling liquidity
  • The impact of monetary policy adjustments on system resilience

We are committed to supporting YieldBasis’s growth without compromising crvUSD’s stability. A controlled expansion with appropriate safeguards benefits both protocols. Our goal is to identify conditions under which larger credit lines can be deployed safely.

Our Recommendation

We recommend reassessing this expansion only after the new monetary policy parameters have had time to propagate, and their influence on peg conditions and rate volatility can be adequately evaluated. The current 300M allocation provides sufficient runway for YieldBasis operations in the near term.

Taking additional time to understand system dynamics before tripling exposure is prudent risk management. We will continue working on our analysis and publish concrete recommendations for conditions under which larger credit lines can be safely deployed.

I appreciate the analysis, and it is correct that it is premature to utilize a significant portion of this credit line.

HOWEVER, this is what the proposal is! It is going to be utilized in small steps, as necessary precations are met, on Yield Basis side!

Update: I made a script which shows safe limit for YB now. Currently 222M

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